Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-09-22 23:03Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market may face risks due to liquidity pressures amidst rising expectations for monetary easing [1][2] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Federal Reserve's actions do not meet investor expectations, the market could experience volatility [2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 30% since early April, driven by reduced uncertainty regarding White House policies and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has announced a restart of interest rate cuts, with the market pricing in a potential 50 basis point cut this year, and the federal funds rate expected to drop to around 3% by the end of next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the current U.S. economy may not require significant rate cuts, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating strong stimulus [2] - The report highlights that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve has not reached a point that would typically warrant substantial easing, as inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target [2][3] Group 3 - The deterioration of the liquidity environment may exacerbate market risks, with the Federal Reserve continuing its quantitative tightening (QT) while the U.S. Treasury is issuing bonds at a large scale [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that signs of liquidity pressure will first manifest in the widening spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate [3] - The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index, currently at 72.5, is close to a four-year low, and a significant rise in this index could indicate increasing tension in the Treasury market [3]