铁合金期货大跌，节前需注意→

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly in manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with high supply and weak demand expectations leading to price drops [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous price increase in ferroalloy futures was primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Current market sentiment has shifted, with high supply continuing while expectations of reduced production from steel mills and weak terminal demand are rising, leading to a decline in ferroalloy prices [3][4]. - The ferroalloy industry is characterized by overcapacity, and while prices had previously risen due to cost factors and expectations of production cuts, no significant reduction policies have been implemented recently [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Manganese silicon inventory has increased rapidly, with 63 companies reporting a stock of 198,900 tons as of September 19, up by 32,100 tons week-on-week, although this remains within normal ranges compared to previous years [4]. - Silicon iron inventory has also remained stable, with 60 companies reporting a decrease from 70,000 tons to 63,300 tons, indicating a simultaneous decline in apparent demand [4]. - The overall production profit has improved, maintaining high output levels despite the pressure on demand, with expectations of reduced steel production potentially leading to negative feedback for ferroalloy prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The market still holds expectations for demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, while cost support remains strong, particularly for manganese ore prices, which have not seen significant declines [5]. - Factors such as high import concentration of manganese ore and potential disruptions from overseas labor strikes or natural disasters could lead to price increases, limiting the downside for manganese ore prices [5]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have limited price decline potential, with forecasts suggesting a wide fluctuation range of 5,600 to 5,950 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter [5].