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墨西哥背刺中国打响第一枪!美国死士全被激活了
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-09-22 23:35

Core Viewpoint - Mexico's recent tariff increase on 544 items, ranging from 5% to 50%, targets countries without free trade agreements, primarily affecting China, as part of a broader strategy to reshape supply chains and respond to unfair competition [1][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Economic Strategy - In September 2025, Mexico expressed intentions to further raise tariffs on vehicles, interpreted as a strategic adjustment in response to geopolitical shifts and regional "de-risking" trends [2]. - Mexico's geographical advantages and integration within the USMCA framework facilitate the transfer of US manufacturing capacity, with trade between the US and Mexico reaching approximately $840 billion in 2024, where over 80% of Mexican exports go to the US [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications and Trade Dynamics - The increase in universal tariffs effectively curbs low-priced imports from China and other Asian economies while avoiding direct violations of WTO principles through selective exemptions for certain trade mechanisms [6][10]. - The US's aggressive trade policies, including raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles from 25% to 100%, push the North American automotive supply chain to favor production within the USMCA region, with Mexico as a prime location [4][10]. Group 3: Security and Business Environment - Despite the potential for growth, Mexico's high crime rates, with homicide figures between 29,700 and 31,100 in 2023, pose significant challenges to its manufacturing appeal, increasing operational costs for businesses [7]. - The US has intensified cooperation with Mexico to combat drug trafficking, which may help mitigate some security concerns and enhance the attractiveness of nearshore manufacturing [8][9]. Group 4: China's Strategic Response - China is advised to adopt a differentiated approach rather than a full-scale confrontation with Mexico, focusing on localized compliance production and high-end components to navigate tariff impacts [12]. - Chinese firms should leverage their strengths in performance and cost-effectiveness in sectors like energy storage and commercial vehicles to maintain overseas orders while avoiding direct competition with protected categories [12]. Group 5: Mexico's Limitations and Future Outlook - Mexico's ability to fully replicate China's manufacturing capabilities is limited, particularly in terms of supply chain integration and logistics efficiency, making a dual production strategy in both countries more viable for multinational companies [16][17]. - The potential for Mexico to absorb US industries is contingent on its ability to maintain tariff policies and security collaborations while providing stable exemptions for compliant manufacturing, indicating a limited but possible development window [19][20].