降息来了！物价却先涨，就业难救，全球央行陷入两难困境！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's cautious decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points reflects the complex challenges facing the U.S. economy, marking the first rate adjustment since late 2024 [2][22] - The U.S. labor market remains weak, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a troubling employment landscape [4] - Inflation persists despite weak employment, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest since January, and core CPI increasing by 3.1%, well above the Fed's 2% target [4] Group 2 - Tariff policies imposed by the U.S. government are contributing to rising domestic prices, with coffee prices increasing nearly 21% year-on-year in August due to tariffs on major coffee-exporting countries [6] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to political pressure from the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about the influence of politics on monetary policy decisions [6][7] Group 3 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with most members predicting a potential rate drop to the 3.50-3.75% range by the end of 2025, while one member advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [7] - Following the rate cut announcement, financial markets experienced a "V-shaped" reaction, initially rising before reversing course, reflecting uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook [8] Group 4 - International gold prices surged, with New York futures rising nearly $200 per ounce in September, surpassing the $3,700 mark, highlighting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty [11] - Global central banks are responding differently to the Fed's rate cut, with the Bank of Canada already lowering rates, while the European Central Bank remains cautious and the Bank of Japan continues its tightening policy [13] Group 5 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar due to the Fed's rate cut is expected to provide upward pressure on the Chinese yuan, potentially benefiting the A-share market and bond market in China [15] - In the U.S., consumer confidence has significantly declined, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropping 21% year-on-year, indicating growing concerns among American households [17] Group 6 - Experts warn that the challenges facing the U.S. economy are structural and cannot be resolved by a single rate cut, with predictions that CPI growth may continue to exceed the Fed's target in the coming months [19][20] - The impact of tariff policies is expected to become more pronounced, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures and threatening long-term inflation expectations [20]