美联储官员本周密集发声，能否定调10月决议

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted its easing cycle, but there are significant divisions among officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, with some advocating for a more aggressive approach while others emphasize the importance of controlling inflation [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points recently, but there is a notable split among officials about the need for additional cuts, with some projecting two more cuts by the end of 2025 [3][4]. - Stephen Miran, a newly appointed member of the Federal Reserve Board, argues for substantial rate cuts to prevent harm to the labor market, suggesting a target federal funds rate around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current rate [3]. - Some officials, like Alberto Musalem and Raphael Bostic, express caution regarding further rate cuts, emphasizing the need to prioritize inflation control despite rising unemployment risks [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Employment - The upcoming employment report for September is critical, with the unemployment rate currently at a relatively low 4.3%, but job creation has slowed [6]. - The labor market's stability is attributed to stagnant job-seeking numbers, influenced by tightened immigration policies [6]. - Policymakers are monitoring various indicators, including unemployment rates among minorities and job prospects for young workers and graduates, to gauge economic trends [6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - The Federal Reserve's inflation target is set at 2%, but projections indicate that inflation may remain above this target through 2025, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3.1% by year-end [8]. - Concerns about inflation are partly linked to the impact of tariffs, which are believed to have a temporary effect on price levels, with estimates suggesting tariffs contribute approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation [9]. - The Fed's view is that the inflationary impact of tariffs will eventually diminish as the costs are absorbed by businesses rather than fully passed on to consumers [9].