《周末小结系列》：“保险式降息”：美元见底？美股还能嗨多久？

Group 1 - The core focus of the market in the past week was on the strong U.S. retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which resulted in a significant interest rate cut described as "insurance-style" [1][5] - U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, particularly the retail control group, indicating that consumer spending remains robust despite signs of a cooling labor market [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was characterized as a preventive measure rather than a response to an economic downturn, suggesting that the overall economic condition is still stable [5][6] Group 2 - The market's initial reaction to the retail data was somewhat counterintuitive, with short-term interest rates falling before rebounding after the FOMC meeting [6][8] - The performance of the U.S. dollar is expected to stabilize, with potential for a rebound as the Fed enters a phase of consecutive rate cuts, which may correct market expectations of excessive easing [11][18] - U.S. equities, particularly growth and technology stocks, have been performing well, supported by the combination of a stable economy and Fed rate cuts, with small-cap stocks potentially poised for a rebound due to low positioning [13][14][16] Group 3 - The Bank of England faces a dilemma regarding the sale of long-term bonds purchased during QE, which could either exacerbate the pressure on the bond market or lead to significant losses if held [16][18] - The overall conclusion from the week's events indicates that the U.S. economy is not weakening as feared, and the Fed's "insurance-style" rate cut is favorable for risk assets, with implications for the dollar, equities, and gold [18]