开润股份(300577)：进一步收购嘉乐20%股权至81% 增厚业绩

Group 1 - The company plans to acquire 20% of "Shanghai Jiale" from "Jiuan Investment" for 280 million yuan, resulting in a post-acquisition holding of 71.8480% in Shanghai Jiale, increasing the total stake from 69.4% to 81.4%, with an expected performance boost in Q4 2025 [1] - The controlling shareholder has terminated the share reduction plan early, which is expected to have a positive impact on the market [2] - The company is projected to see significant profit growth in Q3, driven by improved net margins in Q2 and accelerated revenue growth in the apparel segment [3] Group 2 - The company benefits from a strategic advantage in Indonesia, where 15% of its revenue comes from exports to the US, especially as the US imposes a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, enhancing the profitability of its 2B bag OEM business [4] - The 2B bag business is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, with net margin recovery driven by improved capacity utilization and reduced foreign exchange impacts [4] - The acquisition of Shanghai Jiale opens up a larger market in apparel manufacturing, creating a second growth curve for the company with potential for margin recovery [4] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted from 55.33 billion, 63.14 billion, and 71.42 billion yuan to 52.38 billion, 60.02 billion, and 68.74 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjustments in net profit and EPS estimates [5] - The closing price on September 22, 2025, was 24.67 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14, 10, and 9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]