Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-23 00:43Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and implemented an export quota system for 2026-2027, limiting exports to 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices [1][4][6] Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced the extension of the cobalt export ban and the introduction of an export quota system, which aligns with market expectations [2] - The export quota will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those without active mining operations for five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [2][3] Group 2: Cobalt Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with specific monthly allocations [3] - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons, managed by ARECOMS [3] - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but ARECOMS reserves the right to adjust it based on market conditions [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The new export quota policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in global cobalt supply, with shortages projected at 12.2, 8.8, and 9.7 million tons for 2025-2027 [4][5] - Global cobalt demand is anticipated to grow, with expected demand of 25.7 million tons in 2025 and 27.5 million tons in 2026, indicating a persistent supply shortage [5] Group 4: Government's Strategic Intent - The consistency of the Congolese government's cobalt policies reflects its commitment to controlling global cobalt prices and managing supply effectively [6] - The government is expected to adjust supply flexibly to stabilize cobalt prices, marking a new phase in the global cobalt industry [6]