供应宽松格局延续 尿素价格依然承压

Group 1 - The current urea market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with daily production gradually recovering, but seasonal demand is not meeting expectations [1] - The low-end price of small particle urea in mainstream regions has recently touched 1580 yuan/ton, while the futures main contract price has been adjusted to around 1670 yuan/ton due to weak market sentiment [1] - There is still an expectation for demand improvement, with a need to monitor export orders and autumn preparation for fertilizers [1] Group 2 - The short-term "weak reality" is evident as the sluggish compound fertilizer market directly drags down urea demand, with sample enterprise inventories remaining at a historical high of 826,200 tons [2] - Compound fertilizer companies are adopting a "production based on sales" strategy, maintaining cautious procurement of urea and focusing on minimum safety stock levels [2] - The long-term "strong expectation" is driven by two main factors: the approaching end of the export window and the gradual initiation of storage work, which is expected to support demand [2] Group 3 - Supply is gradually recovering due to the resumption of previously shut down production facilities, with the overall industry operating rate exceeding 81% and daily production surpassing 200,000 tons [3] - The commissioning of three large urea production facilities in the third quarter adds approximately 1.5 million tons/year of new capacity, intensifying supply pressure and altering regional supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 4 - Due to lower-than-expected demand release and continuous supply increase, industry inventories have risen to 1,165,300 tons, nearly a 50% increase since early Q2 [4] - High inventory levels are causing significant capital occupation pressure for companies, leading some to adopt discount promotion strategies to accelerate cash flow [4] - The urea market is likely to experience a dual increase in supply and demand, with supply expected to rise due to the resumption of production and new installations, while demand improvement relies on the rapid execution of export orders and concentrated autumn demand release [4]