【迈科宏观经济及贵金属周报】美联储货币政策预期宽松，贵金属延续偏强走势丨2025.09.23

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are leaning towards easing, which supports a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Last week, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend, driven by expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve ahead of the interest rate meeting [2] - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of the September interest rate meeting results, precious metal prices saw a brief adjustment but rebounded due to increased risk aversion, maintaining an overall bullish trend [2][49] - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, alleviating concerns about the labor market, although it remains above the average levels of July and August, indicating potential weakness [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales data showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.63% in August, indicating a significant improvement compared to the second quarter [8] - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, while maintaining the inflation forecast for 2025 [14] - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a consensus for two more rate cuts within the year, with expectations for cuts in October and December [15] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - The market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over U.S. government funding and trade risks between the U.S. and China, which could lead to short-term volatility [2][49] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market as gold prices rise [28] - The SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons, indicating a recovery in market sentiment following a period of decline [31]