刚果（金）公布钴出口配额，钴价或强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government has extended the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, and set export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production, indicating a strong intention to control global cobalt prices and stabilize the market [1][11]. Export Policy Changes - The Congolese government announced on September 20 that the cobalt export ban would be extended and a quota system would be implemented starting October 16, 2025 [2][3]. - The export quota system will not apply to companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt exports in 2024, those with refining plants but no mining operations in the past five years, and companies with depleted cobalt reserves [3]. Export Quota Details - The export quota for October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allocations of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons [4]. - For 2026, the total export quota is 96,600 tons, which includes a baseline quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [4]. - The 2027 export quota will remain the same as 2026, but adjustments may be made based on market conditions [4][5]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The global cobalt supply is expected to be significantly lower than normal levels due to the new export quotas, with supply shortages projected at 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons for 2025-2027 [6][7]. - Global cobalt demand is forecasted to increase by 9% and 7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, leading to a projected demand of 294,000 tons by 2027 [7][8]. Market Implications - The consistent policy changes from the Congolese government demonstrate a commitment to controlling global cobalt prices, which is expected to lead to a stable operating environment for the cobalt industry [9]. - Companies involved in cobalt refining in Indonesia and those with mining operations in Congo are anticipated to benefit from the expected rise in cobalt prices [11].