黄金早参丨市场押注美联储延续降息！多头情绪延续 ，金价再创续升高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices continue to rise due to investor bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with COMEX gold futures reaching a high of $3783.3 and closing at $3781.20, marking a 2.03% increase and a new historical high [1] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a divergence among officials regarding the necessity of further cuts, with new official Milan advocating for a significant reduction to around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current policy rate [1] - Two regional Fed officials expressed caution about further rate cuts, emphasizing that while the recent 25 basis point cut was appropriate to address rising unemployment risks, controlling inflation remains the primary focus [1] Group 2 - Shenyuan Futures analysis indicates that despite ongoing pressure from Trump, the Fed's stance on rate cuts remains cautious, but the outlook for cuts is clear, with expectations for two more cuts in the remaining meetings of the year [2] - Strong performance in U.S. retail sales for August, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marks the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [2] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations show progress, with limited inflation impact from tariffs, leading to market expectations for investment growth in the fourth quarter [2]