张尧浠：10月降息预期加避险推动、金价周内仍剑指3775

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a strong bullish trend, with prices rebounding and reaching significant targets, while silver prices have also hit a 14-year high, indicating overall strength in precious metals [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 22, gold opened at $3686.98 per ounce, recorded a low of $3683.62, and later surged to a high of $3748.53, closing at $3746.67, marking a daily increase of $59.69 or 1.62% [1]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to a 90% expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October, which has diminished the attractiveness of the US dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the US current account for Q2, preliminary PMI for September, and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, with expectations leaning towards a positive impact on gold prices [3]. - The market is also anticipating comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which could further influence gold prices depending on whether he signals a dovish or hawkish outlook [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The fundamental drivers for gold's bullish trend include expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, and strong inflows into gold ETFs, with gold prices having risen over 40% this year [5]. - The ongoing global monetary policy easing, weakening of the US dollar credit system, and institutional demand for gold are expected to sustain the bullish trend, with targets potentially reaching $4200 or higher [5][6].