国金证券：顶层支持+市场化淘汰+技术迭代有望推动光伏产业链供给改善

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to improve supply-side conditions through a combination of top-level support, market-driven elimination of outdated capacity, and technological iteration, with significant price recovery observed in the industry chain [1] Group 1: Industry Analysis - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that the price and profit bottom of the photovoltaic industry chain are clear, with significant effects from the "anti-involution" initiative leading to an expansion of participants and product price recovery [1] - The industry is likely to see a series of policy measures related to capacity and product quality that will drive continuous recovery in the industry chain's prosperity [1] - The historical review of supply-side reforms from 2016-2017 shows that administrative forces played a key role in eliminating outdated capacity and promoting mergers and acquisitions among state-owned enterprises, leading to increased industry concentration [1] Group 2: Supply-Side Adjustment Strategies - The photovoltaic industry is expected to face challenges in clearing outdated capacity through purely administrative or fully market-driven methods; instead, a regulated and market-oriented approach will be emphasized [3] - The report suggests that energy consumption and product quality will be key policy focuses in the current round of capacity elimination, with strict requirements likely to accelerate the exit of outdated capacity [3] - The industry is characterized by low concentration, and administrative guidance in capacity restructuring is seen as a viable method to enhance industry concentration and facilitate capacity clearance [3] Group 3: Pathways for Supply-Side Adjustment - The combination of top-level support, market-driven elimination, and technological iteration is viewed as a pathway for supply-side improvement in the photovoltaic industry [4] - The report estimates that once the industry chain covers all costs, the corresponding tax-inclusive price for components will be approximately 0.81 yuan/W, indicating a potential for good market acceptance [4] - The ongoing pressure on profitability and debt levels among main chain enterprises is expected to accelerate industry clearance, particularly for second and third-tier companies [4]