一文读懂“未来日本首相”之争：对于市场，高市早苗是最大变数

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming election for the president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on October 4 is drawing significant attention from investors, particularly regarding the policy positions of the five candidates, with Sanae Takaichi being identified as the most likely to cause market volatility [1][7]. Candidate Policy Positions - There are notable divergences among the candidates regarding tax policies, monetary policies, and fiscal directions, with Takaichi seen as a potential catalyst for market fluctuations [1]. - Takaichi's victory could lead to significant impacts on the yen and Japanese government bond markets, as she prioritizes debt-to-GDP ratios over strict fiscal discipline, which may raise expectations for fiscal expansion [1][8]. - In contrast, candidates Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi are expected to maintain continuity in policies, while Takayuki Kobayashi is the only candidate who has not ruled out consumption tax cuts, which could strengthen the yen if he wins [1][4]. Market Reactions - Current market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, with low volatility in the dollar-yen options market, attributed to lessons learned from previous elections and the difficulty in predicting outcomes due to a lack of voting intention information [8]. - If Takaichi wins, it is anticipated to trigger significant market reactions, including a weaker yen and a steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve [8]. - The potential victory of Koizumi or Hayashi may lead to a mild strengthening of the yen and a flattening of the yield curve, but overall market reactions are expected to be subdued due to a lack of change in outlook [8]. Upcoming Events - Several public debates and policy speeches are scheduled in the next two weeks, culminating in a vote that ends on October 3, followed by the official election on October 4 [6].