供应宽松格局延续 PTA仍处于下行通道

Core Viewpoint - The PTA market is facing significant supply pressure due to continuous capacity expansion, while demand recovery is weaker than expected, leading to a bearish outlook for PTA prices [2][4][7] Supply Pressure - The PTA industry has seen a capacity expansion of 34.8 million tons from 2022 to 2024, with an annual growth rate of 9.15% [2] - By mid-2025, the total PTA capacity is expected to exceed 91 million tons, further increasing supply pressure [2] - Despite temporary maintenance of some PTA facilities, the overall supply remains ample due to high capacity levels, with weekly production reaching 1.4308 million tons as of September 18, showing a 3.09% week-on-week increase and a 4.1% year-on-year increase [2] Demand Recovery - The polyester market has not experienced the anticipated demand recovery during the traditional peak season, with the domestic polyester operating rate at 87.9%, reflecting limited recovery momentum [4] - Year-to-date, PTA has added 5.7 million tons of capacity, while the polyester sector has only added 2.6 million tons, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand dynamics [4] Cost Support - PTA prices are closely linked to crude oil prices, which have been declining since September 17, leading to a drop in PTA prices over three consecutive trading days [5] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to weakened demand expectations and increased production plans from OPEC+, suggesting limited support for PTA prices from the cost side [5] PX Market Dynamics - The PX market has seen a slight increase in operating rates due to the restart of several facilities, contributing to a relaxed supply situation [6] - The low processing fees in the PTA sector are prompting some factories to plan maintenance, which could further reduce PTA operating rates and subsequently lower PX procurement demand [6] Overall Market Outlook - The continuous introduction of new PTA capacity raises concerns about oversupply, while weakening costs from crude oil and PX prices contribute to downward pressure on PTA prices [7] - The expectation is for PTA prices to remain weak in the short term, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a short-selling strategy [7]