橡胶：云南产区上量，泰北原料价降需求强

Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, with increased production in domestic regions and fluctuating prices in Thailand [1] Supply Side - In Thailand, the central market price for rubber water is 55.8 THB/kg, down by 0.5 THB/kg from the previous period, while the cup price is 54 THB/kg, also down by 0.5 THB/kg [1] - In Shandong, the SCRWF price is 14,650 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton [1] - Domestic production in Yunnan has significantly increased, with average dry content ranging from 28% to 35%, which is lower than last year [1] - There is a notable increase in supply from Northern Thailand, with expectations of strong rainfall in the coming weeks that may impact raw material prices [1] Demand Side - Tire production has increased year-on-year, supported by the "old-for-new" policy, leading to strong terminal sales [1] - However, there is a high inventory of semi-steel tires, and sales may decline following the end of heavy truck policies [1] Market Outlook - The current market shows a strong reality but weak expectations for natural rubber, with short-term supply increases leading to price declines [1] - The deep-colored spot market remains strong, with Thai mixed rubber (RU01) at historical highs [1] - Future attention should be on weather conditions in Thailand and domestic policies, with recommendations to buy on dips for RU01, allowing for both left-side and right-side positioning [1]