房价继续全面下跌？有专家判断：未来三年房价或许会出现历史新低

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant price declines, with 68 out of 70 major cities reporting a drop in second-hand housing prices, indicating a shift in market dynamics and consumer sentiment [2][4][10]. Market Trends - The current downtrend in housing prices is unprecedented in the last two decades, with a record high of over 7.5 million second-hand homes listed for sale [4][10]. - In 2025, the average price of second-hand homes across 100 cities fell by 7.32% year-on-year and 0.77% month-on-month [10]. - The total inventory of commercial housing reached 760 million square meters, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance in the market [11]. Price Adjustments - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen price declines exceeding 30%, with Shenzhen experiencing a drop of over 40% [8][24]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen below 4,000 yuan per square meter, approaching the 3,000 yuan mark [16]. Consumer Behavior - There is a notable shift in consumer attitudes towards homeownership, with the willingness to buy among the 25 to 30 age group dropping from 65% to 48% [18]. - The traditional view of real estate as a means of wealth accumulation is changing, with more young people opting for renting and financial management instead of purchasing homes [18][22]. Policy Changes - Housing policies are evolving, with a focus on stabilizing the market rather than driving speculative investments, as seen in the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions [20][26]. - The government is directing financial resources towards emerging industries like technology and renewable energy, moving away from reliance on real estate for economic growth [26][27]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that housing prices have already declined by 20%, with an additional potential drop of 10% expected [24]. - The real estate sector is undergoing a structural transformation, transitioning towards a healthier long-term trend despite ongoing downward pressures [27][28].