DLS MARKETS：美联储降息，为何内部吵翻了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly following its first interest rate cut since December of the previous year, which has sparked significant debate among its members [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is split into two camps: one led by the White House economic advisor, advocating for substantial rate cuts to protect the labor market, and the other, led by several regional Fed presidents, cautious about further cuts due to inflation concerns [3]. - The economic landscape has fundamentally changed under the Trump administration, with the neutral interest rate potentially lowered to around 2.5%, nearly 2 percentage points below the current rate [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains relatively low at 4.3%, but the growth rate of new job creation has noticeably slowed [4]. - Tariff policies from the Trump administration are complicating the economic situation by affecting both inflation and employment [4]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Fed officials predict that by the end of 2025, inflation will still be 1 percentage point above the target level, which typically would trigger warnings for rate hikes, but the current context is different [4]. - The impact of tariffs on core PCE inflation is estimated to be around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, with the possibility that this effect may be a one-time price level change [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The outcome of the Fed's internal debate will significantly influence not only the U.S. economy but also global market trends, as the Fed must balance employment protection with inflation control amid rising uncertainties [5].