【英文】EMBER：中国能源转型评论2025

Core Insights - The report "EMBER: China Energy Transition Review 2025" analyzes China's clean energy transition, highlighting its significant impact on global energy dynamics and fossil fuel usage [1][5][9]. Group 1: Domestic Energy Transition Achievements - In 2024, clean energy sources like wind and solar accounted for 84% of the increase in electricity demand, with fossil fuel generation decreasing by 2% in the first half of 2025 [11][23]. - By 2023, electricity represented 32% of total final energy consumption in China, surpassing the 24% levels seen in Europe and the US, with electricity becoming the primary energy source in the industrial sector [12][26]. - The total installed capacity of wind and solar reached 1,408 GW by 2024, exceeding coal capacity for the first time in early 2025 [33][57]. Group 2: Drivers of the Energy Transition - The transition is driven by a combination of policy initiatives and economic factors, with the clean energy sector contributing approximately 13.6 trillion RMB (about $1.9 trillion) to the economy in 2024, representing about 10% of GDP [2][28]. - Chinese companies lead global clean energy patent applications, accounting for 75% of the total, which has facilitated significant cost reductions in technologies such as wind and solar [14][28]. - The "1 + N" policy framework supports the dual carbon goals, emphasizing the establishment of a clean energy system before phasing out fossil fuel facilities [2][27]. Group 3: Global Implications of China's Energy Transition - China's advancements in clean energy technologies are enabling emerging markets to leapfrog traditional energy systems, with 25% of these markets surpassing the US in electrification levels [14][22]. - In 2024, China exported 242 GW of solar energy, with half directed towards emerging markets, and electric vehicle exports accounted for 41% of total automotive exports in the first five months of 2025 [2][22]. - The decline in China's fossil fuel consumption, which fell by 1.7% from 2015 to 2023, is expected to contribute to a structural decline in global fossil fuel demand by 2030 [12][41].