邓正红能源软实力：地缘溢价对冲供应过剩担忧 软硬实力拉锯 国际油价微幅走低

Core Viewpoint - Current oil price fluctuations are a dynamic balance between the resilience of Russian energy infrastructure and the deterrent effect of EU sanctions, with geopolitical premiums countering concerns of oversupply [1][3][4] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - Brent crude oil has remained above $66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $62.64 per barrel, reflecting a slight decline of 0.06% and 0.16% respectively [1] - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a $5 range since early August, indicating a stable yet volatile market environment [1][2] - The geopolitical premium is estimated to maintain oil prices in the range of $3 to $5 per barrel due to ongoing conflicts and sanctions [3][4] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities have led to short-term supply disruptions but have not significantly undermined Russia's energy infrastructure [2][4] - The EU's upcoming sanctions are expected to target third-party oil entities, particularly affecting Indian companies, as part of efforts to limit Russian oil revenues [1][2] - The resilience of Russian oil exports remains strong, with over 60% of exports maintained despite sanctions, highlighting the effectiveness of alternative payment methods [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The overall supply situation is characterized by excess, with OPEC's increased production pushing global daily output to 105.8 million barrels [5] - Demand remains weak, with China's crude oil imports only increasing by 2.1% and EU consumption declining by 4.6% year-on-year [5] - Future scenarios suggest potential market shifts depending on the intensity of Ukrainian attacks and the response of third countries to EU sanctions [5]