ETO Markets 市场洞察：美联储内部“鸽派”突袭！米兰挑战鲍威尔渐进式降息逻辑

Group 1 - The new Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, emphasizes the independence of monetary policy and bases decisions on objective economic data, advocating for a 50 basis point rate cut, which he was the only member to support [1][3] - Milan predicts that interest rates need to be lowered by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year, arguing that current rates are significantly above the neutral rate and that strict immigration policies will reduce housing demand and inflationary pressures [2][3] - Milan's stance on aggressive rate cuts may lead to market volatility, as he warns that prolonged deviation from the neutral rate could threaten employment targets [2][3] Group 2 - Milan's communication with Trump was limited to congratulations, with no discussion of voting intentions, reinforcing his commitment to independent economic data interpretation and alleviating concerns about political interference [4] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the current rate cut decisions, citing low risks of inflation from tariffs and viewing Milan's appointment as a routine personnel change, indicating continued public trust in the Fed's independence [5] - Milan's aggressive rate cut proposals could exert 5%-8% downward pressure on the dollar index in the short term, contradicting traditional views that high rates support the dollar, and potentially accelerating capital outflows to emerging markets [6]