长端利率震荡下配置价值凸显，30年国债ETF(511090)盘中成交超53亿元

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has undergone a downward adjustment, with the latest quote at 118.16 yuan, indicating active market trading and liquidity [1] Market Performance - The 30-year Treasury ETF recorded a turnover rate of 17.38% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 5.345 billion yuan, reflecting a vibrant market [1] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 10.254 billion yuan [1] Fund Size - According to Wind data, the latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 30.895 billion yuan [1] Market Conditions - The bond market has not shown significant recovery as of September, with long-term bond yields remaining volatile and the yield curve spread continuing to widen [1] - New public fund fee regulations and expectations of central bank bond purchases have emerged, leading to a downward adjustment in long-term yields after breaking below 1.8%, followed by a period of volatility [1] Economic Outlook - Dongwu Securities indicates that the yield has returned to the upper range of the volatility zone, with a notable weakening of the stock-bond relationship. The impact of quarter-end fund redemptions and banks realizing profits is gradually diminishing [1] - The fundamental economic data remains weak, and expectations for the resumption of Treasury trading are increasing, alongside a higher probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates within the year. However, significant upward movement in the bond market is limited in the short term [1] Index Tracking - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index (Total Value) which is part of the China Bond Index family. The index consists of publicly issued and tradable 30-year government bonds with a remaining maturity of 25-30 years, excluding special government bonds, serving as a performance benchmark for this category of bonds [1]