猪价创年内新低、养殖利润跌破成本线 政策推动产能去化 畜牧养殖或迎布局窗口？

Core Insights - The pig prices have reached a new low for the year, with average prices at 12.83 yuan/kg and piglet prices at 24.08 yuan/kg as of September 23 [1] - The livestock farming ETF (516670) has seen a decline of 1.66% in early trading, with significant capital inflow of over 81 million yuan in the past five trading days, indicating a counter-trend investment strategy [1] - The profitability of pig farming has dropped below cost levels, with external piglet farming losses at -199.31 yuan per head and self-breeding losses at -24.44 yuan per head, marking a return to losses after over 16 months of profitability [2] - A meeting on pig production capacity control was held on September 16, with plans to reduce the breeding sow population by approximately 1 million heads, bringing the total to about 39.5 million heads [2] - The industry is expected to undergo accelerated capacity reduction due to the dual pressures of "anti-involution" policies and losses leading to production cuts, suggesting a potential upward trend in pig prices and sector performance [3] Industry Summary - The pig farming sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and profits declining sharply, leading to a comprehensive loss situation for farmers [2] - The current market conditions indicate an oversupply of pigs, with increased supply from group farms and stricter environmental regulations affecting piglet replenishment sentiment [1][2] - The livestock farming ETF closely tracks the swine farming industry, with a significant portion of its holdings in major pig farming companies, indicating a concentrated investment in this sector [3]