Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-23 06:49Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities has issued a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), highlighting the company's strategic upgrades and potential for growth in the retail sector [1] Group 1: Business Strategy and Developments - Since February 2025, Alibaba has upgraded its three major platform layouts, entering the instant retail sector through its food delivery business [1] - The food delivery service acts as a high-frequency essential traffic entry point, effectively driving local life and e-commerce businesses, positioning the platform to capture future retail competition [1] - The "One Taobao" strategy has been upgraded, with organizational adjustments and comprehensive integration of member benefits [1] Group 2: User Engagement and Market Position - The launch of flash purchase services has significantly improved user acquisition and retention, with differentiated competition in categories such as apparel, electronics, and beauty products [1] - The rapid replenishment of delivery personnel enhances operational capacity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Financial Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a dual oligopoly market structure centered around Alibaba and Meituan, driven by a dual-model approach to develop a full range of businesses [1] - The firm projects that from FY2026 to FY2028, Alibaba could contribute an additional 1 trillion GMV [1] - With a focus on scaling and efficiency optimization, the flash purchase business is expected to achieve stable profitability contributing up to 18.3 billion yuan, with a potential market value increase of nearly 200 billion yuan by 2026 under optimistic valuation scenarios [1]