【利得基金】9月降息落地，金价还有支撑吗？

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is expected to be a significant year for gold, with a remarkable price increase of over 40% from $2624.16 per ounce at the end of 2024 to $3702.93 per ounce by September 16, 2025, indicating strong investment opportunities in gold [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors including political uncertainty following Trump's presidency, rising U.S. debt issues, and geopolitical risks, which have all increased the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - The escalation of global tariff disputes initiated by Trump significantly contributed to the gold price rally, with prices jumping through key thresholds of $3300, $3400, and $3500 per ounce in April [3][4]. - Despite fluctuations due to geopolitical events, gold prices entered a consolidation phase after a significant rise, with renewed upward momentum in August driven by rising bond yields and concerns over U.S. monetary policy [3][4][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% is seen as a confirmation of economic slowdown, which enhances gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [7][8]. - The decline in real interest rates resulting from the Fed's actions reduces the holding costs of gold, further supporting its investment attractiveness [7][8]. - Ongoing concerns regarding U.S. fiscal health and the potential for a global monetary easing race are expected to maintain upward pressure on gold prices [8][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to view gold as a long-term asset rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations, as it has shown a cumulative return of over 144% since 2020, outperforming major stock indices [11][15]. - The recommendation is to maintain a "core holding" in gold, treating it as a stabilizing asset within a diversified portfolio, especially in light of ongoing global economic uncertainties [13][15].