刷新纪录！外贸顺差近1万亿美元，但许多外贸工厂倒闭，为什么？

Core Viewpoint - China's trade surplus has reached nearly $1 trillion, a historical high, yet thousands of foreign trade factories are closing down, indicating a structural shift in the export landscape rather than a decline in exports [1][11]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Structural Changes - The official trade surplus is calculated by subtracting the total value of imports from exports, focusing solely on monetary value without considering the underlying industries [3]. - High-value products like electric vehicles and lithium batteries have replaced traditional labor-intensive goods, leading to a higher trade surplus but not necessarily benefiting all factories [3][5]. - Traditional small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises are facing severe survival challenges despite the rising surplus [3][5]. Group 2: Impact on Traditional Manufacturing - Many garment factories in Zhejiang report a lack of orders, with clients shifting to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh or to more automated factories [5]. - The shift towards automation is resulting in significant job losses, as machines replace skilled labor [5][7]. - The transition to high-tech industries is not friendly to low-skilled workers, who find it difficult to adapt to new job requirements [5][9]. Group 3: Economic and Social Implications - Local governments face a dilemma between supporting traditional factories and allowing them to close, which could lead to reduced tax revenue and increased unemployment [7]. - The financial sector is increasingly favoring high-tech industries for credit and financing, tightening loans for traditional manufacturing [7]. - Unemployment is spreading from coastal areas to inland regions, with older workers struggling to find new jobs in a rapidly changing economy [7][9]. Group 4: Need for Systemic Support - There is a pressing need for social safety nets, such as unemployment insurance and skill training programs, to support workers during this transition [9]. - The education system is adapting by removing outdated vocational programs and introducing new fields like robotics and renewable energy [9]. - A unified national skills certification system is necessary to facilitate the transition of workers into high-value industries [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current export structure is undergoing a transformation, with old industries declining and new ones emerging, which may lead to a stronger economy in the long run [11]. - The ability to navigate this transition will determine whether Chinese manufacturing can achieve lasting success on the global stage [11].