Ge Long Hui·2025-09-23 09:41Core Viewpoint - The A-share market exhibited a surprising strong rebound in the tail end of trading, with the banking sector showing significant gains despite a generally mixed performance across major indices [2][5]. Market Performance - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, but all experienced a strong "V-shaped" recovery in the tail end, with the ChiNext index reversing a 2% decline to close up 0.21% [2]. - The banking sector, which had been in a prolonged downturn, saw a notable increase, with the banking index rising by 1.28%, and several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, posting gains exceeding 3% [2][3]. Sector Analysis - The market displayed clear differentiation, with high-growth sectors like AI, internet, and biomedicine experiencing corrections, while traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, and public utilities attracted capital inflows and rose against the trend [5][6]. - The banking sector had been in a correction phase since mid-July, with an overall decline exceeding 10%, contrasting sharply with the broader market's strong performance [7][10]. Capital Flow - Today, net inflows into banking stocks reached nearly 1.4 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors, with over 22% of the inflow coming from large orders, indicating renewed interest from significant capital [10]. - The recent news from the State Council regarding the achievements in financial sector development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has contributed to the renewed focus on banking stocks [10]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent corrections, the long-term logic supporting banking stocks remains intact, with strong capital support expected to continue flowing into the sector [17][20]. - Predictions indicate that the net profit growth rate for listed banks in 2025 is expected to reach 1.0%, driven by improvements in net interest margins and increased provisions contributing to profit stability [18][19]. Summary - As growth sectors see rising valuations and increased volatility, banking stocks are likely to regain attractiveness as a defensive sector, with signs of capital returning to the banking sector observed since late September [22].