标准普尔500指数：明年涨至9000点概率25%，泡沫渐显

Core Viewpoint - Evercore ISI predicts a 25% chance that the S&P 500 index could rise to 9,000 points next year, amid concerns of an expanding stock market bubble [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The S&P 500 index is forecasted to reach 7,750 points by the end of 2026, potentially driven by applications of artificial intelligence [1] - The possibility of a bubble forming has increased to 25% following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 67% of respondents believe the stock market bubble is beginning to expand, with a growing "fear of missing out" among investors [1] - Clients are increasingly inquiring about what to buy in a rapidly rising market [1] Group 3: Market Behavior and Historical Context - Despite the potential for a bubble, the market is not yet exhibiting signs of extreme enthusiasm, with bullish sentiment remaining relatively subdued [1] - Historical reference is made to the late 1990s, where the Nasdaq 100 index rose 500% after Alan Greenspan's remarks on "irrational exuberance" before peaking in early 2000 [1] Group 4: Short-term Outlook - The company expresses caution regarding potential short-term market weakness, anticipating a possible pullback before the typically strong months of November and December [1]