印度9月PMI较8月高点回落，服务业增速放缓至6个月新低

Core Insights - India's September PMI index has declined from August's peak, influenced by a 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian exports, leading to the slowest growth in new export orders in six months, while domestic new orders have increased [1][3] Group 1: PMI Performance - The composite PMI output index for India in September is at 61.9, down from August's final value of 63.2 [1] - The services PMI business activity index for September is at 61.6, compared to August's final value of 62.9 [1] - The manufacturing PMI output index for September is at 62.7, down from August's final value of 63.7, while the manufacturing PMI index itself is at 58.5, down from August's 59.3 [1][3] Group 2: Sectoral Trends - There is a divergence between services and manufacturing sectors, with services growth slowing to the lowest level in six months, while manufacturing growth has accelerated [3] - Despite a continued increase in private sector employment at the end of Q2, the pace of expansion has slowed compared to August, with both manufacturing and services growth rates declining [3] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Inflation - Significant cost pressures remain in the services sector, contrasting with the recovery in manufacturing, with reports of rising prices for cotton, electronic components, oil, steel, vegetables, and timber [3] - In September, the increase in manufacturers' selling prices outpaced that of service providers, with the slowdown in the services economy lowering the overall inflation rate [4] Group 4: Future Outlook and Tax Changes - Private sector assessments of future output are very optimistic, with overall confidence levels rising to a seven-month high, partly due to the reduction in Goods and Services Tax (GST) [4] - The GST council has implemented a simplified two-tier tax structure, effective September 22, with the basic tax rate reduced to 5% and 18%, and some essential goods and services seeing tax reductions or exemptions, which is expected to stimulate consumption [4]