“剪刀差”扩大 斑马智行上市烦恼多

Core Viewpoint - The recent executive changes at Zhibao Zhixing, particularly the departure of CTO Wang Jun to BYD, have raised concerns about the company's future performance, especially given its declining revenue and increasing net losses as highlighted in its prospectus [1][2]. Financial Performance - Zhibao Zhixing's revenue showed fluctuations from 2022 to 2024, with figures of 8.05 billion, 8.72 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, followed by a decline in Q1 2025 to 1.36 billion from 1.68 billion year-on-year [2][3]. - The adjusted net losses for the same period were 7.26 billion, 7.92 billion, and 7.57 billion, with Q1 2025 losses increasing to 2.01 billion from 1.96 billion year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has reported a total adjusted net loss of 22.75 billion over three years, with a gross margin decrease from 53.9% in 2022 to 38.9% in 2025 Q1 [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue is categorized into three segments: system-level operating system solutions, in-vehicle platform services, and AI end-to-end solutions. The system-level solutions accounted for over 80% of revenue from 2022 to 2025 Q1, peaking at 89.7% in Q1 2025 [3]. - In-vehicle platform services contributed 10% to 12.2% of revenue during the same period, while AI solutions remained in single digits [3]. Client Dependency - SAIC is Zhibao Zhixing's largest client, contributing 54.7%, 47.4%, 38.8%, and 47.8% of total revenue from 2022 to Q1 2025, respectively [7]. - The company is heavily reliant on SAIC, and any changes in SAIC's demand or partnerships could significantly impact Zhibao Zhixing's financial health [7]. Operational Metrics - The number of designated points, which indicates the number of OEMs selecting Zhibao Zhixing's solutions, decreased from 37 to 30 in Q1 2025, attributed to delays in internal approvals and contract signings [5]. - This metric is crucial as it directly correlates with future business growth and revenue potential [5]. Cost Structure - In Q1 2025, R&D expenses were 1.96 billion, down 22.6% year-on-year, while management and sales expenses increased by 18.1% and 7.4%, respectively [6]. - The company has indicated a focus on high-priority projects and core talent, leading to a reduction in employee costs [6]. Competitive Landscape - Zhibao Zhixing faces intense competition in the smart cockpit sector, with low technical barriers allowing OEMs to develop in-house solutions, potentially eroding market share [9][10]. - The company’s partnerships with major investors like Alibaba and SAIC provide some competitive advantages, but the lack of significant barriers to entry remains a concern [9].