长江商学院调查：股民信心改善，但长期牛市需基本面支撑

Group 1 - The recent rise in A-shares indicates a recovery in investor confidence, but a long-term bull market requires strong fundamental support [1] - As of September 2025, approximately 63.1% of surveyed investors believe A-shares will rise, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from April 2025 and 15.6 percentage points from July 2024 [1] - The expected return rate for A-shares is around 1.6%, up 1 percentage point from April 2025 and 5.6 percentage points from July 2024 [1] Group 2 - The valuation recovery of A-shares is driven by three main factors: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and technological advancements [1][2] - The central bank has released liquidity through multiple measures, including a total of approximately 2 trillion yuan from two reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] - Public investment in infrastructure, supported by high fiscal deficits, is expected to boost economic growth and improve corporate fundamentals [2] Group 3 - China's technological enterprises have made significant breakthroughs, with companies like Yushun Robotics and DJI gaining international attention, leading to strong performance in related sectors [2] - By August, sectors such as semiconductors and automation equipment saw stock price increases of over 60% year-on-year [2] Group 4 - Strategic responses to US-China trade tensions have bolstered market confidence in China's economic and technological self-reliance [4] - The proportion of China's exports to the US has decreased from 19.3% in 2018 to 11.8% in the first half of 2025 [4] - Efforts to reduce reliance on US high-end AI chips and promote domestic chip development have strengthened China's negotiating position [4] Group 5 - Despite improved market sentiment and strong performance from tech companies, overall earnings growth for non-financial A-share companies remains low [4] - The current rise in A-shares is primarily driven by valuation rather than fundamental improvements, raising concerns about sustainability [4] Group 6 - China's economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, aligning with the growth target of around 5% [5] - The inflation rate was nearly zero in the first half, which is unfavorable for corporate profitability [5][6] - Transitioning the economic structure from investment to consumption, along with promoting innovation and upgrading industries, are critical for fundamental development [6]