美联储降息了！10 年美债利率却死扛 4%，三个原因在背后 “拖后腿”

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have not led to a significant decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which is contrary to historical trends where such cuts typically result in lower yields [1][3][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - Over the past 50 years, there have been 12 interest rate cut cycles, which can be categorized into two distinct types: "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" [3][6]. - Preventive rate cuts, such as those in 1995 and 2019, occur before economic downturns and typically result in smaller, short-lived declines in 10-year Treasury yields, averaging a drop of 167 basis points [6][7]. - Recessionary rate cuts, like those during the 2007 financial crisis, are more aggressive and prolonged, leading to larger declines in yields, but the rebound in rates occurs much later [7][9]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current situation is influenced by three main factors that are hindering the expected decline in long-term yields: limited rate cut capacity, rising term premiums, and reduced foreign investment demand [12][21]. - The long-term neutral interest rate in the U.S. has increased to 3%-3.5%, limiting the number of potential rate cuts to about 3-4 times, while the market anticipates 4-5 cuts [13][15]. - The term premium, which compensates for the risks of holding long-term bonds, has risen from negative to 0.9%, partly due to a significant increase in Treasury issuance [17][19]. - Foreign investors, particularly from Japan and Europe, are less inclined to purchase U.S. Treasuries due to competitive yields in their own markets, which diminishes demand for U.S. debt [19][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for U.S. Treasury yields suggests a likelihood of narrow fluctuations, with limited potential for significant declines or sharp increases [21][22]. - Key indicators to watch include the downward potential of yields, which may be constrained by the neutral rate and weak foreign demand, and the upward risks associated with increased political intervention and inflation pressures [23][24]. - Investors should focus on two critical timeframes: the outcomes of the upcoming rate cuts and the early 2024 Treasury issuance plans, as these will directly influence the term premium [27][28].