经合组织上调全球经济增长预测，预测美联储还能降息三次

Group 1 - OECD raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.2%, citing unexpected resilience in the global economy, particularly in emerging markets [1][2] - The US growth forecast for 2025 was also increased from 1.6% to 1.8%, although the OECD warned that the full impact of tariff increases has yet to be realized, and significant risks remain for the economic outlook [1][2] - Despite the upward revision for 2025, the OECD maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 2.9%, indicating a slowdown from 3.3% growth expected in 2024 [1][2] Group 2 - The growth momentum is attributed to several factors, including preemptive shipping strategies by businesses in anticipation of higher tariffs, strong investment in artificial intelligence in the US, and effective fiscal support measures in some countries [2] - The OECD noted that as of the end of August, the overall effective tariff rate in the US had risen to 19.5%, the highest level since 1933, and warned that the full effects of tariff increases are becoming increasingly evident in consumer choices, labor markets, and consumer prices [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with rising unemployment rates and decreasing job vacancies, which may pave the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 3 - The OECD predicts that the US inflation rate will be 2.7% this year, slightly above last year's 2.5%, and will reach 3% by 2026, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - The organization anticipates that the Federal Reserve has room for three more rate cuts, with the policy rate expected to be lowered to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by next spring [3] - Key risks identified include further tariff increases and the potential resurgence of inflation, along with financial stability risks associated with high and unstable cryptocurrency valuations [3]