Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-09-23 12:29Core Viewpoint - Nomura's latest report indicates that NIO's "self-redemption" has begun but is far from complete, with a significant price target increase from $5.00 to $8.40 while maintaining a "neutral" rating, suggesting a 22% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - NIO has successfully turned around its sales slump due to strong demand for its new models, the L90 and the new ES8, with weekly order volumes for the L90 ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 units and confirmed orders for the new ES8 nearing 50,000 units, exceeding production capacity for the remainder of 2025 [2][3]. - The strong order book provides a solid foundation for delivery growth in the second half of 2025, and if NIO continues this strategy with new models next year, the growth outlook remains optimistic [2]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - Despite resolving demand challenges, NIO's financial situation remains fragile compared to competitors, with shareholder equity only recently turning positive after a capital raise, indicating an unstable financial foundation [3]. - Analysts suggest that NIO may require further investment to maintain operations, especially considering the typical sales slowdown in the first half of the year [3]. Group 3: Profitability Forecast - Nomura has adjusted its financial forecasts for NIO, reflecting short-term pressures but long-term improvements, with a 9.5% reduction in 2025 delivery forecasts to 352,000 units and an 11.7% decrease in revenue projections for the same year [4]. - However, due to strong demand for new models, delivery forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 0.9% and 12.7%, respectively, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 32% for revenue from 2024 to 2027 [4]. - The gross margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been slightly lowered by 0.2 to 1.2 percentage points due to the "price-for-volume" strategy, but operating profit margin expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised, with a forecast for NIO to achieve breakeven by the fiscal year 2027 [4].