经合组织上调今年全球经济增长预期，但警告美国关税冲击尚未完全显现

Group 1 - OECD reports that global economic growth is more resilient than expected, supported by AI investments in the US economy [2] - The full impact of US tariffs has yet to be realized, with companies currently absorbing shocks by reducing profit margins and utilizing inventory [2] - The effective tariff rate on US goods imports rose to 19.5% by the end of August, the highest level since the Great Depression [2] Group 2 - OECD raises global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.9% to 3.2%, while maintaining a 2.9% forecast for 2026 [3] - The short-term boost from inventory accumulation is fading, and high tariffs are expected to hinder investment and trade growth [3] - Specific forecasts include a slowdown in US growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, despite AI investment and fiscal support [3] Group 3 - Most major central banks are expected to lower interest rates or maintain accommodative policies in the coming year, provided inflation pressures ease [4] - The Federal Reserve may further cut rates if the labor market weakens, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, while other central banks like the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England are anticipated to lower rates [4]