Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-09-23 13:18Core Insights - The smart glasses industry is approaching a "breakout critical point" with major tech companies like Meta launching new smart glasses [1] - Bank of America predicts that AI glasses will dominate growth from 2025 to 2027, while AR glasses are expected to take over as the main growth driver starting in 2028 [1] - China is positioned to play a crucial role in the global smart glasses supply chain, controlling over 80% of suppliers [1] Industry Trends - The smart glasses market is entering a phase of accelerated demand release, characterized by a "two-stage differentiation" growth logic [2] - First Stage (2025-2027): AI glasses will lead growth with an expected annual shipment growth rate of 25% due to their high technological maturity and cost control [2] - Second Stage (2028 onwards): AR glasses are projected to replace AI glasses, with an anticipated annual shipment growth rate of 101% as display technology and optical solutions improve [2] - The overall market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% from 2025 to 2030, with a doubling point in shipments around 2027 driven by consumer electronics replacement cycles and enterprise applications [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - The global smart glasses supply chain is characterized by "China dominance and regional division of labor" [3] - Supply Side: Chinese companies control over 80% of core components, including cameras, optical waveguides, MEMS, and batteries, with significant market shares in key areas [3] - Manufacturing Side: China remains the core manufacturing base, while EMS companies are gradually shifting some non-core assembly operations to Southeast Asia to mitigate supply chain risks [3] - The industry focuses on two main technological directions: drug delivery efficiency and user adaptability, with companies holding core technology patents establishing differentiated barriers [3] Key Company Analysis - GoerTek: Upgraded to "Buy" due to its position as the world's largest smart glasses assembler, with over 70% of assembly orders from major clients like Meta and Sony. Target price set at 42 RMB based on a 34x PE ratio for 2026 [4] - Crystal Optoelectronics: Maintained "Buy" rating as a core supplier of AR optical waveguide plates, with a target price of 30 RMB based on a 27x PE ratio for 2026 [6] - Sunny Optical: Also rated "Buy," recognized for its dual capabilities in camera modules and optical waveguides, with a target price of 104 HKD based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026 [9]