预测“追不上”市场，华尔街策略师经历2024年来最大的"追涨困境"

Core Insights - Wall Street strategists are struggling to keep up with an unexpected strong market rally, leading them to frequently revise their previously conservative forecasts upward [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen to a level nearly 3% higher than the average year-end target set by strategists, with the current average forecast at 6486 points [1] - Key drivers of this rally include robust corporate earnings growth, ongoing enthusiasm for AI breakthroughs from major tech companies, and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] Earnings and AI Enthusiasm - Analysts now expect a 9.4% profit growth for S&P 500 companies this year, up from a previous estimate of 7.1% [2] - The market's excitement over advancements in artificial intelligence by large tech firms has provided additional optimism for investors [2] Adjusted Predictions - Strategists have been forced to adjust their predictions multiple times due to the continuous market rise, with Ed Yardeni raising his year-end forecast from 6600 to 6800 points [3] - There is a 25% chance that the S&P 500 could reach 7000 points by the end of 2025 if the Fed continues to cut rates [3] - Julian Emanuel has also raised his year-end target to 6250 points and anticipates the index could climb to 7750 points by the end of 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has surged 34% since its low in April, reaching its highest valuation multiple since January 2021 [5] - The impact of tariff policies on growth and inflation remains uncertain, contributing to strategists' previous hesitance [5] Federal Reserve's Role - The recent decision by the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts has further fueled market optimism [6] - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 has typically risen in the year following rate cuts when the index is near record highs [6] - The current economic environment is seen as favorable for risk-taking, supported by the Fed's policy stance [6]