“谨慎降”与“加速降”票委正面交锋! 美联储降息叙事深陷分歧

Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to further rate cuts due to persistent inflation above the Fed's target and an upward trajectory [1][2] - Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlights the risk of falling behind economic conditions due to a rapidly weakening labor market, advocating for decisive action to lower rates [1][4] - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since December 2024, with expectations for two more cuts this year [2][3] Group 2 - The FOMC dot plot indicates significant divergence among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 7 officials predicting no further cuts this year and 2 supporting only one more cut [3] - Powell describes the recent rate cut as a "risk management" move aimed at adjusting monetary policy from a "moderately tight" stance to a more neutral position [3][4] - Bowman warns that the FOMC needs to act more swiftly in response to the deteriorating labor market conditions, suggesting a need for faster and larger adjustments to monetary policy [4][5]