PP行业：下游开工回升，新增产能投产建议观望

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the PP market shows a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, but overall demand remains below expectations, leading to a recommendation to observe the market rather than engage in active investment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The operating rate of PP downstream has increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, which is still low compared to historical levels [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving has risen by 0.5 percentage points to 43.6%, with orders showing a slight increase, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] - As of September 23, the operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to around 80% due to maintenance at facilities such as Zhongjing Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The inventory levels of petrochemical companies are at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years, with general destocking observed in September [1] - The recent drop in crude oil prices is attributed to a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, a significant increase in U.S. distillate oil inventories, and expectations of increased Iraqi oil exports [1] - The recent commissioning of the 450,000 tons/year PP production line at CNOOC Ningbo Daxie is expected to impact supply, while maintenance activities have slightly increased [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The improvement in weather conditions and the approach of the peak season (Golden September and Silver October) are expected to boost plastic weaving operating rates, with many industries anticipating a rise in demand [1] - However, the demand during the peak season is not meeting expectations, and there is a lack of large-scale concentrated procurement in the market [1] - The implementation of anti-involution policies in the PP industry remains pending, which, along with the elimination of outdated facilities, is part of macro policies aimed at addressing overcapacity issues and will influence future market trends [1]