阿根廷捍卫比索

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's President Milei has implemented aggressive fiscal tightening and free-market reforms, but following a significant local election loss, the foreign exchange market has become volatile, leading to a sharp depreciation of the Argentine peso against the dollar and declines in bond and stock markets [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains, beef, and poultry to encourage exporters to bring more dollar income back to the country, aiming to stabilize the peso [3][4]. - The export tax on soybeans has been reduced to 26%, while the tax on its by-products is now 24.5%. Beef and poultry export taxes have been cut from 5% to zero [3][4]. - The government requires exporters to settle at least 90% of their foreign exchange in the market within three working days of submitting their export sales declaration [3]. Group 2: Political Context - The recent election results showed a significant loss for Milei's party, with the opposition receiving 47% of the votes compared to Milei's 33%, raising uncertainties ahead of the upcoming midterm elections [6]. - The political landscape is increasingly challenging, with expectations of continued volatility in foreign exchange and asset prices leading up to the elections [8]. Group 3: Financial Stability - The Argentine government is rapidly depleting its foreign exchange reserves to support the peso, with a record sale of $678 million in a single day, the highest since October 2019 [6][7]. - Economists warn that maintaining the current exchange rate could lead to a return of hyperinflation, jeopardizing Milei's reforms [7]. - The government has submitted a budget proposal for 2026, projecting an inflation rate of 10.1% and a dollar value of 1423 pesos [8]. Group 4: International Support - The U.S. Treasury has expressed support for Argentina, which has positively impacted local dollar rates and boosted stock and bond markets by 20% [9]. - The nature and scale of U.S. financial support will be crucial for the sustainability of Argentina's asset price recovery and Milei's political prospects [9].