Core Viewpoint - A significant industry reshuffle is occurring in the polysilicon sector, driven by new energy consumption standards that favor technologically advanced companies while pushing outdated capacities out of the market [2][8]. Group 1: New Energy Consumption Standards - The National Standardization Administration has released draft standards for polysilicon and silicon products, establishing strict energy consumption limits [2]. - The new standards set the energy consumption limits for polysilicon at 6.4 kgce/kg, with a requirement to reduce to 5.5 kgce/kg for compliance, significantly tightening previous limits [2][4]. - The new standards will lead to the closure of companies that fail to meet the revised energy consumption benchmarks within a specified timeframe [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Capacity - Following the implementation of the new standards, the effective domestic polysilicon production capacity is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [4]. - The new standards could result in the shutdown of over 30% of the industry’s capacity, significantly alleviating the current overcapacity situation [4][7]. - Despite the reduction, the remaining capacity will still exceed the projected demand of 1.5 million tons by 2026 by about 60% [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like GCL-Poly and Tongwei are expected to maintain a competitive edge due to their compliance with the new energy standards [5][8]. - GCL-Poly's granular silicon energy consumption meets the new first-level standard, while Tongwei's energy consumption is close to the second-level standard, positioning them favorably in the market [5][8]. - The new standards are anticipated to enhance the "head effect" in the photovoltaic industry, favoring companies that can adapt and innovate [5][7]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The new energy standards represent a significant challenge for many polysilicon producers, necessitating substantial investments in technology upgrades to remain competitive [6][8]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards higher quality requirements, which may lead to increased costs for companies unable to adapt quickly [6][7]. - The implementation of these standards is part of a broader strategy to improve profitability across the photovoltaic supply chain, with various measures being taken to stabilize the market [7].
多晶硅划定能耗红线:协鑫、通威迎来机遇 落后产能步入生死线
Xin Jing Bao·2025-09-23 15:49