李子园扩产踩刹车

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan has terminated a planned investment of 200 million yuan in a dairy beverage production line in Yunnan, citing "land planning and industrial planning" as reasons, while industry insiders believe it is related to declining revenue and underutilization of existing capacity [1][2] Group 1: Project Termination - The terminated project was planned since 2022, involving the construction of three sterile filling production lines for dairy beverages with a total investment of approximately 200 million yuan [2] - The termination was officially announced on September 12, 2023, through an agreement with the local government, emphasizing the need to optimize resource allocation and reduce investment risks [2] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - As of last year, Li Ziyuan's total production capacity across five factories was 375,900 tons, with an actual utilization of 248,800 tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of only 66% [1][4] - The company has ongoing projects with a planned investment of 1.58 billion yuan, aiming to increase total capacity to 592,600 tons by 2029, representing a 58% increase compared to 2024 [3] Group 3: Revenue and Market Challenges - The core revenue source for Li Ziyuan, dairy beverages, has faced significant pressure, with revenue for this segment declining by 11.19% year-on-year to approximately 583 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is attempting to diversify its product offerings, including new products like AD calcium milk and vitamin water, to mitigate reliance on a single category [5] Group 4: Strategic Shift to Milk Powder - Li Ziyuan plans to invest 320 million yuan in a new project in Ningxia to produce whole and skim milk powder, indicating a strategic shift to explore a "second growth curve" [1][5] - The milk powder market is highly competitive, with established players like Yili and Mengniu already present, raising concerns about Li Ziyuan's ability to penetrate this market effectively [5]