当黄金站上3800美元 投资者还能“上车”吗

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures breaking the $3,800 mark and reaching a historical high of $3,824.6 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 8.5% in September and a year-to-date rise of 38% [1][2] Price Movement - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to factors such as the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over stagflation in the U.S. economy, and worries regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that spot gold prices will exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, while Goldman Sachs maintains a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to reach $4,500 or even $5,000 under certain conditions [2][3] Investment Strategies - Industry experts recommend a phased investment approach and caution against the rapid price increases, suggesting that investors focus on long-term value rather than short-term gains [3] - Various gold assets have shown differentiated returns, with COMEX gold futures up 38.3% year-to-date and Shanghai gold futures up 36.7% [3] ETF Performance - In the domestic market, gold ETFs have exhibited significant performance variation, with an average net asset growth rate of approximately 47% for 20 gold ETFs this year. ETFs tracking domestic spot gold prices have a one-year average return of 35%, while those linked to gold stocks have seen an average growth rate of 74% [4] - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in gold remains intact, recommending investors to consider buying on dips or employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy [4]