鲍威尔最新讲话全文：利率仍具限制性，需平衡就业和通胀

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with GDP growth at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [4] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3% in August, although it has remained low overall, with job creation slowing to an average of 29,000 jobs per month over the past three months [5] - Inflation has recently risen, with the PCE price index increasing by 2.7% over the past 12 months, above the long-term target of 2% [5] Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% to better respond to economic developments and risks [1][7] - The Fed emphasizes a flexible approach to policy adjustments based on data and economic outlook, aiming to balance the dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing inflation [7] Trade and Policy Impacts - Significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies are still unfolding, and their long-term effects on the economy remain uncertain [3][6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with a one-time price level increase that may take time to fully manifest in the supply chain [6] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of slowing supply and demand, leading to increased risks in job creation and employment stability [5] - Despite the challenges, some labor market indicators, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, remain stable [5]