Ge Long Hui·2025-09-23 02:37Industry Overview - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that capacity reductions in the mainland automotive industry are driving industry consolidation, with luxury car dealers expected to benefit first [1] - The report anticipates a significant acceleration in dealership closures from 2025 to 2026, as the overall profit margin for new cars fell below 1% in the first half of this year, making it unattractive for smaller dealers [1] - Car manufacturers plan to reduce their dealership networks in mainland China by 10% to 30% by the end of 2026, which will favor financially stable dealers [1] Company Insights - Zhongsheng Holdings is expected to experience a turning point after four years of decline, with a projected 67% year-on-year rebound in profits to 4 billion yuan by 2026, driven by a recovery in new car profit margins and increased market share in the unexpected repair sector [1] - The decrease in capital expenditure requirements suggests that the expected dividend yield of 5% in 2026 has room for growth; the target price has been raised from 15 HKD to 21 HKD, with a rating of "Overweight" [1] - Tuhu has also been given an "Overweight" rating, with an expected annual compound growth rate of 25% in profits from 2025 to 2027, based on user growth from its app and expansion of franchise stores; the target price has been increased from 20 HKD to 23 HKD [1]