鲍威尔最新讲话：股票价格估值偏高

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the increasing downside risks in the labor market were a key reason for the recent interest rate cut, marking a shift towards a "neutral" policy stance. He acknowledged that current inflation levels remain slightly above target, with the core PCE inflation rate for August expected to be 2.3% [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Consumer spending has shown signs of slowing down, and business confidence is affected by uncertainty, leading to a decrease in labor market vitality [2]. - Powell emphasized the need to be cautious of the sustained inflation effects that may arise from increased tariffs, which could lead to a one-time rise in price levels over several quarters [4][5]. Interest Rate Outlook - Powell did not provide strong signals regarding the upcoming monetary policy meeting on October 28-29 but did not dismiss the market's expectations for another rate cut. He stated that officials would monitor growth, employment, and inflation data to assess the appropriateness of current policy positions [5][6]. - More than half of the Federal Reserve officials predict at least two more rate cuts this year, suggesting potential actions in October and December [5]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement of a 25 basis point rate cut, U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching new historical highs. However, Powell acknowledged that stock prices appear relatively high, although he stated that it is not a time of increased financial stability risks [6]. - The major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, Nasdaq down 0.95%, and S&P 500 down 0.55% [8]. Sector Performance - Large technology stocks saw significant declines, with Oracle down over 4%, Amazon down over 3%, and Nvidia down over 2%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $125.9 billion (about 89.54 billion RMB) [9]. - Cryptocurrency-related stocks also faced declines, with Circle down over 4% and Coinbase down over 3%. In contrast, oil and gas equipment and energy stocks saw gains, with Halliburton up over 7% and Nabors Industries up over 5% [12].