A股为何脱离经济基本面走强，这轮牛市还能持续多久？

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence between economic data and A-share performance indicates a strong stock market driven by improved expectations and declining market interest rates, particularly deposit rates, which have encouraged external capital inflow [1][9]. Economic Indicators - Major economic indicators such as industrial added value and retail sales have shown a slowdown, with industrial growth rates of 6.8%, 5.7%, and 5.2% from June to August, and retail sales growth rates of 4.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4% during the same period [3]. - Fixed asset investment growth has also declined, with cumulative year-on-year growth rates of 2.8%, 1.6%, and 0.5% from June to August [3]. Market Performance - Since July, the A-share market has seen significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a range of 3100-3400 points to over 3800 points, marking a nearly ten-year high. The index increased by 12.1%, while the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index rose by 42.4% and 33.6%, respectively, from July 1 to September 15 [1][8]. Valuation and Earnings - Analysts note that the current bull market is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, with A-share companies showing weak profit growth of only 2.42% and 0.98% for listed companies and non-financial sectors, respectively, in the first half of the year [6][11]. - The market's risk appetite has increased, contributing to rising valuations, with external factors such as easing trade tensions and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts playing a role [6][8]. Capital Inflow and Liquidity - The decline in deposit rates has prompted a shift of funds from savings to the stock market, with approximately 33 trillion to 60 trillion yuan of excess savings potentially available for investment [9]. - The current three-year deposit rate has fallen below 2%, leading to a "wealth effect" that encourages residents to invest in financial products or the stock market instead of keeping funds in low-yield savings [9]. Market Outlook - Despite recent gains, experts believe that A-share valuations remain reasonable, with the financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization at 2.49%, significantly lower than the 4.7% peak in 2015 [10]. - The market is expected to maintain its upward momentum, supported by favorable conditions across various factors, although some minor corrections may occur [10]. - A sustainable bull market requires effective economic improvement and profit recovery, as the current valuation levels are approaching the upper limits seen since 2016 [10][11].