Group 1 - The domestic cotton spinning market is showing a significant weakening trend, with the Zheng cotton main contract experiencing a decline after four months of rebound, reaching a low of 13,510 yuan/ton [1] - As of September 19, the total commercial cotton inventory in China was 1.1426 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons week-on-week, reflecting a 10.16% drop [2] - The forecast for cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 6.36 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons compared to the previous year, which may exert downward pressure on cotton prices [2] Group 2 - The textile industry's cotton industrial inventory is continuously decreasing due to insufficient orders and a lack of raw material procurement motivation [3] - The operating rate of textile enterprises was reported at 66.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, indicating weak demand in the market [2] - Global cotton markets are facing pressure from the new cotton harvest in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly from the U.S., where the cotton harvest rate reached 12% as of September 21, in line with the five-year average [4] Group 3 - Concerns about global demand remain, with the U.S. cotton market experiencing downward pressure despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have not significantly improved the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities [4] - The combination of new cotton entering the market and increased production expectations is expected to alleviate the tight inventory situation of old cotton, while the domestic cotton market is likely to enter a seasonal accumulation phase [4] - The overall outlook suggests that both domestic and international cotton prices may continue to decline in the short to medium term, influenced by multiple factors including the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [4]
新棉上市在即 内外棉价承压运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-23 23:19