基本面矛盾并不突出 PTA不具备深跌基础

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak terminal demand leading to continuous price declines, PTA prices are not expected to drop significantly due to low processing fees and stable supply-demand fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Processing Fees and Production Costs - Processing fees for PTA have been compressed to a historical low of 130 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive production cost has reached 4500 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of approximately 330 yuan per ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have not significantly reduced their operating rates despite the losses. After a brief decline in mid-August, the operating rate has rebounded to 77.37% as of September 22, an increase of 3.89 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - PTA production for the week ending September 18 was 1.4309 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 47,000 tons, indicating that supply has largely returned to normal levels [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Stability - As of September 22, PTA social inventory was 3.3091 million tons, a decrease of 0.73% week-on-week and significantly lower than the same period last year. The available days of PTA enterprise inventory have dropped to 3.8 days, a reduction of 0.81 days year-on-year [2]. - The available days of PTA inventory for downstream polyester enterprises have also decreased to 6.85 days, down 2.7 days year-on-year, suggesting limited inventory pressure [2]. Group 3: Terminal Demand and Market Sentiment - Despite being in the traditional peak season for inventory replenishment, the textile industry is experiencing weak demand, with the operating rate of the terminal weaving industry at 67%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lack of terminal orders has dampened market confidence, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement across the supply chain, which is a primary reason for the pressure on chemical fiber product prices [4]. - Polyester enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, with the polyester operating load at 87.43% as of September 22, an increase of 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, although inventory levels for polyester products are rising due to low purchasing willingness [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing difficulties faced by PTA production enterprises have not yet led to a contraction in supply, but if low processing fees persist, the industry may adopt production limitation strategies to maintain prices [3].